Mitt could drop dead in July 2012 (and other Tea Party victory scenarios)

I mostly agree with Jonathan Bernstein about the unlikelihood of a crazy fringe Tea Party candidate capturing the GOP presidential nomination in 2012:

Now, I know what you're thinking: what about .. [a] scenario in which a Bachmann or a Newt hangs on until the winner-takes-all states, and then the crazy vote defeats the sane vote, which is split multiple ways (or at least two ways, between Romney and Pawlenty)? I don't find that one even remotely plausible. GOP elites would swiftly move in and push one of them out before the damage is done.

No, the only way that it's going to happen is if one of these candidates quickly goes into one-on-one with a presumed nominee, who then un-presumes himself or herself. Even then, it's possible that Republicans would find a way to avoid the grim results, depending on when it happens and what happens. But that's how it could play out.

The presidential nomination process has evolved by accident, but the elites have made sure that it works to drive out insurgent candidates.

In state primaries, a true outsider can win in two ways. First, he or she can win a plurality of the vote against multiple establishment candidates. That can't happen in a protracted presidential primary season, in which the elites always unify behind one person after the first few contests. Second, in a state primary a rebel can catch the establishment by surprise by turning out new voters or by latching on to a popular issue during the final few days of the campaign. Again, this can't happen over several months in which mainstream leaders can develop a counter-strategy.

As Bernstein points out, there are a couple of far-fetched scenarios in which a Palin or a Trump could prevail in 2012, starting with a presumptive nominee making a catastrophic mistake (or getting involved in a scandal, or just dropping dead) after all the primaries are completed. This scenario requires the media (Fox News in particular) to push the argument that the second-place finisher has a moral claim on the nomination.

I would add that a Tea Party candidate could get creative with the rules and try to win delegates without winning the popular vote (much as Mori Dinauer argues a that clever delegate-hunting strategy could be pivotal). For example, it's not inconceivable that a state legislature sympathetic toward the idea of a Tea Party nominee could nullify the results of a presidential primary in which independents delivered a victory to Romney or Pawlenty. I find it much more plausible for Republican legislators in, say, Wisconsin, to deliver delegates to Palin than for Palin to win a one-on-one primary against Pawlenty.

If you still doubt that the "moderate" in the race will prevail in the long run over a far-right candidate, look at this map of presidential primary results in 2008. Huckabee narrowly won several Southern states, but he was a washout in big Northern states like California, Illinois, and New York. Meanwhile, McCain won big in the North and had many pockets of strength in the South (mostly in coastal areas like New Orleans, Mobile, Savannah, and Charleston). I think the same dynamic will apply in 2012: The far-right candidate will lose in the North by a bigger margin than he or she wins in the South.

That's how Haley Barbour dropping out of the race helps Romney and Pawlenty. He was mainstream enough to win the moderate Southern counties; now they'll be more receptive to a not-crazy Northerner.

Comments

[This could work !!]

I like the Subversive Democrat strategy, where the Dems do everything they can to promote Palin or Trump by talking up how "compelling" or "thought provoking" their fringe (birther) ideas are.

[Chris VanHaight]

The comment above seems on target, though how much of it is a Democratic strategy and how much of it is simply the media's desire to generate controversy by playing up un-electable candidates in order to sell ad space needs to be evaluated. It is sort of like the Birther controversy: are the Democrats secretly glad this is playing out, hoping the eventual nominee can be discredited among independents during the general election? Ooh, that would be Machiavellian.

[Chris VanHaight]

Obama threw down the gauntlet today by releasing the long form of his birth certificate. Trump may have with this one issue self-immolated even before the campaign season really begam. On second thought, is anyone really that surprised?

[Robert David Sullivan]

I'm sure Obama and the Democrats are doing all they can to make the GOP look ridiculous, but if it's too blatant, it will backfire. (Watch out for open microphones, Mr. President, and don't crow about crazy candidates getting all the press.) As for Trump, I don't think he'll make it far, but this won't discourage him. The angriest people of all right now are the conspiracy theorists who finally accept the validity of the long form birth certificate. They will never vote for Obama under any circumstance, and Trump is busily giving them alternate reasons ("affirmative action"!) to hate the president.

[Jim]

THE SOLUTION

Everyone living in United States knows that our country is in trouble. We are headed towards civil unrest and rioting in the streets similar to what is happening in Greece and other areas of the world. 

It is almost as if there is a dooms day scenario about to unfold and our leaders are saying run up the deficit. Who cares what our National Debt is because the world is about to end and we will never have to pay it back. 

Let us put on our Nostradamus thinking caps! Imagine ourselves 100 years in the future looking back at the fall of the United States of America. What solutions will the Historians say that if we had implemented them could of saved us from destruction. 

I believe that in this mindset we can easily agree that the following need to be implemented immediately. Not one or some of these solutions but all.

1) One flat rate tax of 20% for all purchases and services in the United States. Dismantle the IRS.

2) Debit cards must be used for all purchases in the United States. This would insure that taxes are being paid and help regulate any year end tax rebates.

3) For every dollar spent for any new product made in the United States the purchaser would receive a 10 cent rebate at the end of the year. This would create American jobs.

4) Any terminally diagnosed person would have an option to receive a one lump sum payment of $45,000 to go home and die with dignity as opposed to low quality life extension in a hospital at a huge cost to society. This money could be used for a spouse or to help put someone in the family thru college.

5) Legalize all drugs. Regulate this industry. This would get rid of the drug cartels and eliminate all the senseless drug related murders. For forty years the United States has been at War with Drugs and we are still loosing. Do not condone drug usage just regulate it.

Jim Burns
You Tube mynation123