Jonathan Bernstein is concerned that GOP-dominated state legislatures could conjure up Fox News-ish reasons (like horror at college students casting ballots) to throw out election results they don't like:
The nightmare scenario is that Democrats win the presidential election by a handful of Electoral Votes; Republicans allege fraud, but fail in attempts to overturn it in the courts; and then in one or more states that voted for the Democrat but have Republican state governments, the legislature nullifies the states' election and installs a slate of GOP electors.
I'm sure that Republican leaders hope that they won't be forced to take such action. They sincerely prefer to win by getting more votes than than the Democrats -- in a low turnout where urban areas don't take unfair advantage of the "one person, one vote" principle by casting more ballots than areas with fewer people.
Laws requiring voters to have picture identification, as well as earlier voter registration deadlines and shorter periods for mail-in ballots, are part of the plan to avoid doing what Bernstein fears. As for the "minimal" inconvenience of acquiring and producing picture ID, I recall when I lived and voted in Boston's South End. During the presidential election of 1992, the line in the morning was so long that I saw about 20 people (probably Democrats, given their, ah, complexion) give up after 45 minutes or so and leave, some of them complaining about being late for work.
Certainly, anything that makes voting more complicated and time-consuming is going to have the effect of calibrating turnout downward. I suppose some poll workers in urban neighborhoods might try to speed things along by barely glancing at the photo IDs, but then GOP "poll watchers" will have a handy reason to declare the results of those precincts null and void.
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