Robert David Sullivan

Victory margins in presidential elections: New Mexico, 1912-2008

The Land of Enchantment is a bellwether for presidential elections (at least the popular vote).

Victory margins in presidential elections: Nebraska, 1868-2008

The next time the Republicans nominate Herbert Hoover, they might be in trouble here.

Top 100 sitcom episodes of all time, No. 43: "Baggage," Everybody Loves Raymond

43. "Baggage," Everybody Loves Raymond (2003)

Welcome to the “100 Best Sitcom Episodes of All Time,” a countdown for 2012. Each episode will get a separate blog post, counting backward toward No. 1.  A list of the programs revealed so far is here (and on Pinterest), and an introduction to the project is here.

Squeamish readers beware: This episode includes family members yelling at each other. I don't find this to be a comedy killer, but maybe it's because of how I grew up: among relatives and neighbors (mostly Catholic or Jewish) who squabbled a lot and did it loudly, and without any thought of divorce or permanent estrangement. Cougar Town, where characters pout and mildly tease each other, makes me chuckle. Everybody Loves Raymond makes me laugh. These are my people!

"Baggage" is about the "Mexican standoff" (as Frank puts it) between Ray and Debra over who is going to carry a large suitcase up to the bedroom after a vacation. It sits for weeks on the landing between first and second floors, with both Ray and Debra not saying a word but deliberately walking around the suitcase, full of dirty clothes, several times a day.

Top 100 sitcom episodes of all time, No. 44: "Diane's Perfect Date," Cheers

44. "Diane's Perfect Date," Cheers (1983)

Welcome to the “100 Best Sitcom Episodes of All Time,” a countdown for 2012. Each episode will get a separate blog post, counting backward toward No. 1.  A list of the programs revealed so far is here (and on Pinterest), and an introduction to the project is here.

Crossed signals have been the basis of sitcom plots since "Lucy Thinks Ricky Is Trying to Murder Her," but the misunderstandings rarely had any long-term implications until Cheers came along. In "Diane's Perfect Date," one well-worn plot — a bet that goes bad — is cleared up at the end of the episode, but only to open the wider mystery of where Sam and Diane's relationship is headed. (Five episodes later comes the conclusion of "Showdown.")

It's hard to convey how much of a thrill this episode was when it first aired. There had been previous sitcoms that teased us with episodes suggesting romantic relationships between regular characters, but they had almost always set the reset button by the following week. (On The Mary Tyler Moore Show, Lou dated Rhoda for one episode, and on Taxi, Alex and Elaine had a one-night stand and nothing more.) They could be charming, but Cheers was more like the classic romantic comedies of theater and film, where characters played for keeps.

Top 100 sitcom episodes of all time, No. 45: "Dinner Party," Frasier

45. "Dinner Party," Frasier (1999)

Welcome to the “100 Best Sitcom Episodes of All Time,” a countdown for 2012. Each episode will get a separate blog post, counting backward toward No. 1.  A list of the programs revealed so far is here (and on Pinterest), and an introduction to the project is here.

"Dinner Party" is not only a bottle episode (using one set and only series regulars) but a real-time episode, in which brothers Frasier and Niles begin the half hour by planning an "intime soiree" and end it by questioning their unusually close relationship. It came in Frasier's sixth season, the first one that wasn't showered with Emmys, but it's as funny as just about any of the more celebrated episodes, and you can't find a better showcase for Kelsey Grammer and David Hyde Pierce.

It's also got an exchange that's one of my favorite in the entire series, in part because it might set a record for the most highbrow reference in a prime-time sitcom (and Grammer is enjoying it so much):

Top 100 sitcom episodes of all time, No. 46: "Complaint Box," NewsRadio

46. "Complaint Box," NewsRadio (1997)

Welcome to the “100 Best Sitcom Episodes of All Time,” a countdown for 2012. Each episode will get a separate blog post, counting backward toward No. 1.  A list of the programs revealed so far is here (and on Pinterest), and an introduction to the project is here.

Before The Office, the sitcom that tried hardest to capture the meetings-and-memos hell of a desk job was NewsRadio. Appropriately for a show on which just about every attempt to improve a workplace failed spectacularly, NBC changed NewsRadio's timeslot 11 times during its four-year run without it becoming more than a cult success. Maybe the show became more surreal as it went on just because everyone involved got dizzy.

NewsRadio was technically about the crew at an all-news radio station in New York City, but the show rarely featured plots having anything to do with journalism. Indeed, a scene from last week's Community ("Curriculum Unavailable") would have been perfectly apt for the finale of NewsRadio: The revelation that WNYX existed only in the minds of a group of inmates at an insane asylum. (This explains "The Sinking Ship" episode.) 

Victory margins in presidential elections: Maine, 1856-2008

Rock-ribbed Repub— oops, never mind.

Victory margins in presidential elections: West Virginia, 1864-2008

Don't put your finger to the wind here.

Philadelphia Story: Do the Democrats really have a lock on Pennsylvania?

The question is whether the Democratic Party really has a "lock" on the 242 electoral votes from states that haven't voted Republican since at least 1988. After a round of stories on Mitt Romney's potential difficulty in getting more than a narrow Electoral College victory, there's been a backlash (see Sean Trende on Real Clear Politics and Steve Kornacki on Salon) from analysts against the idea that certain states are unwinnable. As Jonathan Bernstein writes, "in any particular presidential election it's possible to see fairly large swings, in both directions. If the swing produces more than about a three point win, the system will produce an electoral college landslide, just as it did for Barack Obama in 2008."

True! But I don't think that many people are focused on the Electoral College because they believe it will produce a different outcome from the popular vote (which is always possible, but so far not probable). The other possibility is that ideological and demographic factors in these "locked" states make them tough targets for the Republicans and will drag down any national vote swing toward the GOP.

Top 100 sitcom episodes of all time, No. 47: "Flu Season," Parks and Recreation

47. "Flu Season," Parks and Recreation (2011)

Welcome to the “100 Best Sitcom Episodes of All Time,” a countdown for 2012. Each episode will get a separate blog post, counting backward toward No. 1.  A list of the programs revealed so far is here (and on Pinterest), and an introduction to the project is here.

Sitcom characters can't get drunk or high every week, and that's why we have the flu episode. Slurred speech, wobbly legs, hallucinations, sudden stupidity... the flu comes with every comic trick short of putting a man in a dress. (Though "Flu Season" gives us Rob Lowe in a hospital johnny, which is a different kind of pleasure.) Parks and Recreation checks off all the symptoms of a flu episode, but it ends with a curve that establishes Leslie Knope as a super-achiever.

I've already written about "one false move" episodes, in which a small decision or action has regrettable consequences. But while just about anyone would feel stupid for sticking one's head where it doesn't belong, people react to sickness in all kinds of different ways. Some of us feel guilty for neglecting our health (or touching a door handle in a rest room), some feel a kind of relief at having an excuse to slack off, and some just refuse to acknowledge being sick.

Leslie:  I'm not sick, I just have allergies, OK? I took a Claritin, and i threw that up, so I took another one, I threw that up, and then I took a third and it stayed down. I'm getting better.

Victory margins in presidential elections: New Hampshire, 1856-2008

Reagan Country turned toss-up state.

Victory margins in presidential elections: Idaho, 1892-2008

Potatoes never forget.