Robert David Sullivan

Victory margins in presidential elections: Nevada, 1864-2008

Best buds with New Mexico, as long as they don't talk about what happened in 2000.

Victory margins in presidential elections: Utah, 1868-2008

We're ready to make a projection: Utah goes Republican in 2012. And 2016. And 2020...

Victory margins in presidential elections: New Mexico, 1912-2008

The Land of Enchantment is a bellwether for presidential elections (at least the popular vote).

Victory margins in presidential elections: Nebraska, 1868-2008

The next time the Republicans nominate Herbert Hoover, they might be in trouble here.

Victory margins in presidential elections: Maine, 1856-2008

Rock-ribbed Repub— oops, never mind.

Victory margins in presidential elections: West Virginia, 1864-2008

Don't put your finger to the wind here.

Philadelphia Story: Do the Democrats really have a lock on Pennsylvania?

The question is whether the Democratic Party really has a "lock" on the 242 electoral votes from states that haven't voted Republican since at least 1988. After a round of stories on Mitt Romney's potential difficulty in getting more than a narrow Electoral College victory, there's been a backlash (see Sean Trende on Real Clear Politics and Steve Kornacki on Salon) from analysts against the idea that certain states are unwinnable. As Jonathan Bernstein writes, "in any particular presidential election it's possible to see fairly large swings, in both directions. If the swing produces more than about a three point win, the system will produce an electoral college landslide, just as it did for Barack Obama in 2008."

True! But I don't think that many people are focused on the Electoral College because they believe it will produce a different outcome from the popular vote (which is always possible, but so far not probable). The other possibility is that ideological and demographic factors in these "locked" states make them tough targets for the Republicans and will drag down any national vote swing toward the GOP.

Victory margins in presidential elections: New Hampshire, 1856-2008

Reagan Country turned toss-up state.

Victory margins in presidential elections: Montana, 1892-2008

Wild extremes in the Wild Wild West.

Gay marriage ban wins 61% in North Carolina

UPDATE: Final returns reveal an eighth county against the ban: the tourist area of Dare County (Kitty Hawk, Nags Head).

The gay marriage ban failed in only seven counties: Buncombe (Asheville), Chatham (small county south of Durham), Durham, Mecklenburg (Charlotte), Orange (Chapel Hill), Wake (Raleigh), and Watauga (ski area bordering Tennessee).

The biggest county where it passed was Forsyth (Winston-Salem). The biggest county where it passed by more than 2 to 1 was Cumberland (Fayetteville).

Complete results here. Map is from WRAL.com.

Victory margins in presidential elections: South Dakota, 1892-2008

Nobody's been able to top FDR and Ike in this state.

Victory margins in presidential elections: Vermont, 1856-2008

Vermont had made a complete back flip over the past couple of decades.