Best buds with New Mexico, as long as they don't talk about what happened in 2000.
Continue reading "Victory margins in presidential elections: Nevada, 1864-2008" »
We're ready to make a projection: Utah goes Republican in 2012. And 2016. And 2020...
Continue reading "Victory margins in presidential elections: Utah, 1868-2008" »
The Land of Enchantment is a bellwether for presidential elections (at least the popular vote).
Continue reading "Victory margins in presidential elections: New Mexico, 1912-2008" »
The next time the Republicans nominate Herbert Hoover, they might be in trouble here.
Continue reading "Victory margins in presidential elections: Nebraska, 1868-2008" »
The question is whether the Democratic Party really has a "lock" on the 242 electoral votes from states that haven't voted Republican since at least 1988. After a round of stories on Mitt Romney's potential difficulty in getting more than a narrow Electoral College victory, there's been a backlash (see Sean Trende on Real Clear Politics and Steve Kornacki on Salon) from analysts against the idea that certain states are unwinnable. As Jonathan Bernstein writes, "in any particular presidential election it's possible to see fairly large swings, in both directions. If the swing produces more than about a three point win, the system will produce an electoral college landslide, just as it did for Barack Obama in 2008."
True! But I don't think that many people are focused on the Electoral College because they believe it will produce a different outcome from the popular vote (which is always possible, but so far not probable). The other possibility is that ideological and demographic factors in these "locked" states make them tough targets for the Republicans and will drag down any national vote swing toward the GOP.
Continue reading "Philadelphia Story: Do the Democrats really have a lock on Pennsylvania?" »